米哈游全家桶抽卡概率计算器
在原神、崩坏：星穹铁道、绝区零 之间自由切换。选择卡池，输入当前保底计数、大保底状态和计划抽数，得到 UP 5★、叠命座 / 星魂 / 影画的准确概率，以及平均所需抽数。
结果
- 预算内抽到任意 5★ 的概率
- 91.85%
- 抽到指定目标 5★ 的概率
- 51.03%
- 抽到 1 个目标 5★ 的概率
- 51.03%
- 出下一个 5★ 平均抽数
- 62.3 抽
- 出目标 5★ 平均抽数
- 93.4 抽
- 出目标 5★ 中位抽数
- 80 抽
- 距硬保底还差
- 90 抽
- 距软保底还差
- 74 抽
每一抽的 5★ 概率与目标累计概率
| 第几抽 | pity | 当前 5★ 概率 | 目标累计概率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0.60% | 0.30% |
| 2 | 2 | 0.60% | 0.60% |
| 3 | 3 | 0.60% | 0.90% |
| 4 | 4 | 0.60% | 1.20% |
| 5 | 5 | 0.60% | 1.50% |
| 6 | 6 | 0.60% | 1.80% |
| 7 | 7 | 0.60% | 2.10% |
| 8 | 8 | 0.60% | 2.40% |
| 9 | 9 | 0.60% | 2.70% |
| 10 | 10 | 0.60% | 3.00% |
| 11 | 11 | 0.60% | 3.30% |
| 12 | 12 | 0.60% | 3.60% |
| 13 | 13 | 0.60% | 3.90% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.60% | 4.20% |
| 15 | 15 | 0.60% | 4.50% |
| 16 | 16 | 0.60% | 4.79% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% | 5.09% |
| 18 | 18 | 0.60% | 5.39% |
| 19 | 19 | 0.60% | 5.69% |
| 20 | 20 | 0.60% | 5.99% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.60% | 6.29% |
| 22 | 22 | 0.60% | 6.58% |
| 23 | 23 | 0.60% | 6.88% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% | 7.18% |
| 25 | 25 | 0.60% | 7.48% |
| 26 | 26 | 0.60% | 7.77% |
| 27 | 27 | 0.60% | 8.07% |
| 28 | 28 | 0.60% | 8.37% |
| 29 | 29 | 0.60% | 8.66% |
| 30 | 30 | 0.60% | 8.96% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% | 9.26% |
| 32 | 32 | 0.60% | 9.55% |
| 33 | 33 | 0.60% | 9.85% |
| 34 | 34 | 0.60% | 10.14% |
| 35 | 35 | 0.60% | 10.44% |
| 36 | 36 | 0.60% | 10.73% |
| 37 | 37 | 0.60% | 11.02% |
| 38 | 38 | 0.60% | 11.32% |
| 39 | 39 | 0.60% | 11.61% |
| 40 | 40 | 0.60% | 11.90% |
| 41 | 41 | 0.60% | 12.20% |
| 42 | 42 | 0.60% | 12.49% |
| 43 | 43 | 0.60% | 12.78% |
| 44 | 44 | 0.60% | 13.07% |
| 45 | 45 | 0.60% | 13.36% |
| 46 | 46 | 0.60% | 13.66% |
| 47 | 47 | 0.60% | 13.95% |
| 48 | 48 | 0.60% | 14.24% |
| 49 | 49 | 0.60% | 14.53% |
| 50 | 50 | 0.60% | 14.82% |
| 51 | 51 | 0.60% | 15.10% |
| 52 | 52 | 0.60% | 15.39% |
| 53 | 53 | 0.60% | 15.68% |
| 54 | 54 | 0.60% | 15.97% |
| 55 | 55 | 0.60% | 16.26% |
| 56 | 56 | 0.60% | 16.54% |
| 57 | 57 | 0.60% | 16.83% |
| 58 | 58 | 0.60% | 17.12% |
| 59 | 59 | 0.60% | 17.40% |
| 60 | 60 | 0.60% | 17.69% |
| 61 | 61 | 0.60% | 17.97% |
| 62 | 62 | 0.60% | 18.26% |
| 63 | 63 | 0.60% | 18.54% |
| 64 | 64 | 0.60% | 18.82% |
| 65 | 65 | 0.60% | 19.11% |
| 66 | 66 | 0.60% | 19.39% |
| 67 | 67 | 0.60% | 19.67% |
| 68 | 68 | 0.60% | 19.95% |
| 69 | 69 | 0.60% | 20.23% |
| 70 | 70 | 0.60% | 20.51% |
| 71 | 71 | 0.60% | 20.79% |
| 72 | 72 | 0.60% | 21.07% |
| 73 | 73 | 0.60% | 21.35% |
| 74 | 74 | 6.60% | 23.57% |
| 75 | 75 | 12.60% | 27.47% |
| 76 | 76 | 18.60% | 32.51% |
| 77 | 77 | 24.60% | 37.99% |
| 78 | 78 | 30.60% | 43.20% |
| 79 | 79 | 36.60% | 47.63% |
| 80 | 80 | 42.60% | 51.03% |
社区研究的保底模型，与米哈游无关。
原理
三款游戏机制形状一致：低基础概率、末段软保底斜率上升、硬保底强制。UP 5★ 通过与常驻池的 50/50（原神角色池自 5.0 起为 55/45；星铁 50/50；绝区零邦布频段无 50/50）决定，一旦歪了下一次必为 UP。只有常数不同。
一切在浏览器内以精确的离散马尔可夫链求解，状态为（保底计数、大保底标志、已获得数量）— 不是模拟、不需登录、无近似误差。切换大保底、目标命座数、抽卡预算，即可在卡池开放前规划星琼 / 原石 / 菲林。
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